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Estimating Case Fatality Rates of COVID-19

Published time: 31 March 2020

Authors: David Dongkyung Kim, Akash Goel


In their model, David Baud and colleagues exclude individuals who die within 14 days of testing positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. If an individual contracts symptoms on March 1, tests positive on March 10 and dies on March 11, they would not be included in the denominator for case fatality rate (CFR) on March 11. In addition, patients might test positive up to 13 days after recovery. As testing is expanded, an asymptomatic patient infected 1 week before testing positive on March 3 should, but will not, be included in calculations for March 16.

Estimating case fatality rates of COVID-19



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