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Estimates of The Severity of Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Model-based Analysis

Published time: 30 March 2020

Authors: Robert Verity, Lucy C Okell, Ilaria Dorigatti, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Natsuko Imai, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Hayley Thompson, Patrick G T Walker, Han Fu, Amy Dighe, Jamie T Griffin, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Anne Cori, Zulma Cucunubá, Rich FitzJohn, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Steven Riley, Sabine van Elsland, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Xiaoyue Xi, Christl A Donnelly, Azra C Ghani, Neil M Ferguson


Abstract

In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases.


Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 a model-based analysis

 

Reference: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

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