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Using Observational Data to Quantify Bias of Traveller-Derived COVID-19 Prevalence Estimates in Wuhan, China

Published time: 01 April 2020

Authors: Rene Niehus, Pablo M De Salazar, Aimee R Taylor, Marc Lipsitch

Keywords: COVID-19, Epidemics, Outcome


The incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, has been estimated using imported case counts of international travellers, generally under the assumptions that all cases of the disease in travellers have been ascertained and that infection prevalence in travellers and residents is the same. However, findings indicate variation among locations in the capacity for detection of imported cases. Singapore has had very strong epidemiological surveillance and contact tracing capacity during previous infectious disease outbreaks and has consistently shown high sensitivity of case-detection during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Using observational data to quantify bias of traveller-derived COVID-19 prevalence estimates in Wuhan, China



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