Probability of Symptoms and Critical Disease after SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Published time: 15 June 2020

Abstract

We quantified the probability of developing symptoms and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 4,326 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 69.1% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 66.7-71.4%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.9% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk.

Reference: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471